Australia bring their 5 match Tour of the Northern Hemisphere to an end on Saturday when they take on Wales in Cardiff and we take a look at the game from a betting angle.
Wales were stunned last week in Cardiff when they were beaten 13-12 by Georgia. Wales had looked to be in control in the first-half, but failed to score any points in the second and Georgia nailed the win with a late 3 pointer.
A week before they had beaten Argentina 20-13 and that was on the back of a 32 point defeat to the All Blacks, a match where they stayed in touch until the final quarter before the All Blacks ran away with things.
Earlier in the year Wales had toured South Africa losing a 3 match series 2-1 and they had a very poor 6 Nations losing all of their games to take the wooden spoon.
Australia took on a massive task of 5 matches on the year-end tour and things began with a 1 point victory over Scotland before a pair of 1 point losses to France and Italy. They started as double digit underdogs in Ireland last week and they have only themselves to blame for failing to beat the Irish as ill-discipline cost them at key times.
In the end Ireland won by 3 points meaning the Wallabies have only won 1 out of 4 matches on tour so far.
The Australian team has been hard hit by injuries and Wales have generally firmed in the big betting all week.
These sides met in last years end-of-year Internationals with Wales winning a close game 29-28 and prior to that they met in the World Cup Pool in Tokyo with Wales also winning that game 29-25. Wales have now won their last 3 in a row against Australia.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 George North, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric (captain), 6 Jac Morgan, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Rhodri Jones, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Ben Carter, 20 Josh Macleod, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Josh Adams
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Langi Gleeson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Jed Holloway, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper (c)
Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Ned Hanigan, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Noah Lolesio, 23 Jock Campbell
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Handicap: Wales -2.5
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Wales -2.5 at 10/11
Wales haven’t been at their best, but showed against Argentina that when their backs are to the wall they can come out firing and get the result. I think that Australia have played at least one match too many on this Tour and given the injury list they look ripe for the taking.
There will be plenty of other markets close to match day including Team and Match Points and Tries and as far as the Total Points line goes, I think we could be in for quite a scrappy encounter.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change