We take a look at the first Rugby World Cup semi-final between Argentina and New Zealand taking place on Friday night and we suggest a bet in the game.

A reminder that the long-term Rugby World Cup markets are constantly updated and you can click here for the latest betting.

At the time of writing South Africa are 1/1, New Zealand 5/4, England 14/1 and Argentina 45/1

ARGENTINA VS NEW ZEALAND – Click here to bet

Argentina

Argentina secured their spot in the top four by beating 4-point favourites, Wales, 29-17. Wales led 10-6 at half time but Argentina came back strong to lead by 2 points late in the second half. They sealed the game with an intercept try with only minutes remaining and added another 3 points to secure their spot in the last 4.

Argentina placed 2^nd in pool D and won 3 of their 4 pool matches. They started off with a loss of 27-10 to England (who topped pool D), followed by a 19-10 win against Samoa, they then thrashed Chile 59-5 and beat Japan 39-27 in their final pool match in what was effectively a knockout game.

New Zealand

New Zealand claimed their spot in the semis by narrowly beating Ireland 28-24 in the quarters. They led 18-14 at the break and although the Irish came back strong at them and the All Blacks had 2 yellow cards, their defence held firm to pull off a minor upset (Ireland were -2.5) and to book themselves yet another Rugby World Cup semi-final.

New Zealand placed 2^nd in pool A and also won 3 of their 4 pool matches. They started off with a 27-13 loss against France but thrashed their next 3 opponents, 71-3 against Namibia, 96-17 against Italy and 73-0 against Uruguay in their final pool match.

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HEAD-TO-HEAD

These sides last met in Argentina in the 2023 Rugby Championship where New Zealand took a convincing win 12-41. Of the sides 5 most recent head-to-head matches dating back to 2021 (all Rugby Championship games), NZ has won 4 of the 5. These games averaged 48 total points per game.

Handicap:  Argentina (+17.5)

Suggested Bet: Point Range 42-48 inclusive at 33/10

The quarterfinals were generally high scoring with all 4 games beating the total point quote pre-game. I am expecting more emphasis on defence and 3 pointers and will be looking for the final points tally to be at or slightly below the current line of 47.5.

Prices correct at the time of writing but subject to change